25家投行前瞻:6月非农增速料回落,黄金有望获支撑

发表于 Jul 06,2023 00:00
汇通财经APP讯——北京时间周五(7月7日)20:30,美国将公布6月季调后非农就业人口变动和失业率。周四(7月6日),包括摩根士丹利在内的25家大型投行发表了对此次数据的前瞻。



25家大型投行预测显示,5月非农大幅好于预期后,6月非农增速将回落,但投行之间的增幅预期差距较大。具体而言,美国6月季调后非农就业人口增幅料介于17.5万-27.5万(前值33.9万),失业率料介于3.6%-3.7%(前值3.7%),平均时薪年率增幅料介于4.2%-4.3%(前值4.3%)。

和前值相比,投行认为6月非农增速放缓,相比之下失业率和平均时薪年率和前值相差不大。若数据显示6月非农增幅真如投行预测那样回落,黄金有望获得支撑。

  主要投行                   6月非农就业人口增幅预期         6月失业率 6月平均时薪年率涨幅预期

蒙特利尔银行                      22万                            3.70%           4.20%           

法国巴黎银行                      23万                            3.60%           4.20%

巴克莱                              22.5万                            3.60%           4.20%

西部银行                      22万                            3.60%                

美银美林                      25万                            3.60%                
   
澳洲联邦银行                      25万                            3.60%                       

凯投宏观                      25万                            3.60%           4.20%

花旗                              22.5万                            3.60%                

美国联信银行                      25.2万                            3.70%                 
  
德国商业银行                      24万                            3.60%                

瑞士信贷                      19万                            3.60%           4.20%

德意志银行                      20万                            3.60%                

高盛                              25万                            3.60%           4.20%

汇丰                              23.5万                            3.70%           4.30%

摩根大通                      20万                            3.60%                 
   
杰富瑞                              25万                            3.50%           4.30%

劳埃德银行                     22.5万                           3.60%                   4.20%
 
摩根士丹利                     27万                            3.60%                
  
野村证券                     25.5万                            3.70%                
    
渣打银行                     22.5万                            3.60%           4.20%

加拿大丰业银行                     27.5万                            3.60%           4.20%

道明证券                      24万                            3.60%           4.30%

瑞银                              17.5万                            3.60%                
   
西太平洋银行                      19万                            3.60%                
     
前值                              33.9万                            3.70%           4.30%

本次预期                             22.5万                            3.70%           4.20%